MEMORY IS NOW THE PRIMARY MARKET SEGMENT FOR SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTS
The hyper-growth of the memory market in 2017 – 2018 has positioned both DRAM and NAND memory as leading devices within the semiconductor market. With the memory markets significantly impacting the semiconductor industry in terms of profits, capex, and sales, Yole Développement is publishing two monitors covering the fastmoving DRAM and NAND markets. Beginning in 2018, Yole Développement began publishing world-class research, data, and insights covering the memory markets in quarterly installments that analyze the evolution of the DRAM and NAND markets in terms of revenue, shipments, capex, and near-term price evolution, as well as demand per market segment, DRAM and NAND technology evolution, and detailed profiles of main suppliers. Yole Développement will also provide DRAM and NAND monthly pricing monitors to track the price evolution of key components and packaged solutions.
MEGATRENDS ARE PUSHING MORE DRAM INTO PRODUCTS, LEADING TO A RECORD 2018
The long-term megatrends boosting the entire semiconductor industry have a very positive impact on the memory market, especially DRAM. Mobile phone in general and the 5G revolution in particular, along with hyperscale data center, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning, and autonomous driving are all pushing DRAM adoption, with a CAGR of more than 20% for bit demand over the next five years. The DRAM market is constantly evolving and changing. The recent market volatility is clear evidence of this. New Chinese suppliers threaten to eventually disrupt the market and emerging memory technologies are poised to cannibalize huge chunks of DRAM demand while the demand-drivers of the past (PCs and smartphones) lose steam and no longer push industry demand.
The DRAM market¡¯s future promises to be as dynamic as its past. Yole Développement¡¯s quarterly and monthly monitors will answer the pressing questions facing the industry, including:
- Will the three primary DRAM suppliers – Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron – continue to manage supply and drive industry revenue to even higher levels?
- Will China¡¯s entrance in the DRAM market disrupt the current market balance?
- Will DRAM manufacturing¡¯s enormous technical challenges and the lack of access to DRAM intellectual property prove too difficult for China to overcome?
- What demand segments will emerge to compensate for the diminishing PC and smartphone categories?
- How much farther will the DRAM roadmap extend? Is there a future beyond 14nm?
- How will AI and machine learning impact DRAM demand and the technology roadmap?
- Will autonomous vehicles meaningfully impact the DRAM market? If so, when?
- Will DRAM capital expenditures continue their recent trend upwards, or will capital intensity climb too high and threaten supplier stability?
- Will DRAM wafer demand push the overall semiconductor market into drastic undersupply?
- Will HBM2 emerge as the dominant DRAM graphics technology?
- When will LPDDR5 and DDR5 become available, and will they ever dominate the market?
- Have the recent DRAM price increases hurt demand, or is DRAM demand-elasticity dead
Yole Développement provides its opinions and answers all of these questions on a quarterly basis with its new DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and DRAM Monthly Pricing Monitor.
WHAT DO THE UPCOMING QUARTERS HOLD?
2019 looks to be a very different year from 2018, with prices falling sharply and demand growing at an anemic 15% year over year. Clearly the DRAM market remains cyclical and dynamic.
2018 revenue reached an all-time high, surpassing $100B for the first time ever. Revenue is projected to drop more than 25% in 2019 due to weaker demand and excess supply (partly driven by excessive amounts of inventory built up in 2018). Bit growth is expected to remain around 15% – 20% over the long-term: lower than historical bit growth because of tech difficulties linked to shrinking lithography. As a direct impact, bit growth is becoming more expensive and more processing steps are needed with each migration node because of multi-patterning, and therefore more cleanroom space per wafer-out.
DRAM QUARTERLY MARKET MONITOR AND MONTHLY PRICING MONITOR – CONTENT
The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and DRAM Monthly Pricing Monitor contain all of the data related to DRAM revenue per quarter, DRAM shipments, pricing per DRAM type, near and longterm revenue, market share per quarter, capex per company, and market demand/supply forecast, as well as a complete analysis and details of the demand side with a deep dive into data centers, mobile, automotive, graphics, and PC.
For the top seven players (Micron, Nanya, Powerchip, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Winbond), the DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor provides a detailed analysis of capex, shipments, wafer production per technology (process mix) and per fab, as well as the expected impact of DRAM technology changes. The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:
- Excel database with all historical and forecast data
- PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/ analysis covering expected evolutions
- Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, providing an opportunity for ondemand Q&A and discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news.
WHAT ABOUT THE DRAM SERVICE – MEMORY RESEARCH?
A full package:
The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:
- Excel database with all historical and forecast data
- PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolutions
- Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, providing an opportunity for on-demand Q&A and discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news
Receive every quarter the updated Market Monitor documents and every month the updated Pricing Monitor documents
- Table of Contents -
- Pricing Monitors can be bought individually (NAND, DRAM or both)
- Memory Research are available for DRAM, NAND and both
DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor (PPT file)
DRAM overview data
- Market forecast
- Supplier dashboard
- Supply and demand
- Revenue and market share
- Segment revenue and market share
- Regional revenue and market share
- Company revenue by segment
- Company revenue by region
- Financial data
DRAM demand data
- Demand summary
- PC demand
- Datacenter demand
- Mobile demand
- Auto demand
- Graphics demand
- Wafer demand by application*
DRAM production data
- Industry production process mix
- Production by supplier
- Wafer production by supplier
- Wafer production by technology*
- Samsung production
- SK Hynix production
- Micron production
- Nanya production
- Samsung production
- Powerchip production
- Other production
DRAM shipment data
- Shipments (historical & forecast)
- Shipments by technology (historical and forecast)
- Shipments by density (historical and forecast)
- Module shipments*
- Emerging memory
- Samsung shipments
- SK Hynix shipments
- Micron shipments
- Nanya shipments
- Winbond shipments
- Powerchip shipments
- Other shipments
DRAM Monthly Pricing Monitor (Excel file)
Monthly price evolution from 2018 – 2020 for:
Mobile DRAM ($/unit)
- LPDDR2 8Gb
- LPDDR2 16Gb
- LPDDR3 8Gb
- LPDDR3 12Gb
- LPDDR3 16Gb
- LPDDR3 24Gb
- LPDDR4 16Gb
- LPDDR4 32Gb
- LPDDR4 48Gb
Server DRAM ($/unit)
- DDR3 2GB R-DIMM
- DDR3 4GB R-DIMM
- DDR3 8GB R-DIMM
- DDR3 16GB R-DIMM
- DDR4 8GB R-DIMM
- DDR4 16GB R-DIMM
- DDR4 32GB R-DIMM
- DDR4 64GB R-DIMM
- DDR3 1GB DIMM
- DDR3 2GB DIMM
- DDR3 4GB DIMM
- DDR3 8GB DIMM
- DDR4 4GB DIMM
- DDR4 8GB DIMM
- SDR 16Mb
- SDR 64Mb
- DDR 256Mb
- DDR 512Mb
- DDR2 512Mb
- DDR2 1Gb
- DDR3 1Gb
- DDR3 2Gb
- DDR3 4Gb
- DDR4 4Gb
- DDR4 8Gb
- DDR4 16Gb
- DDR4 32Gb