NAND - ޸ ġ
NAND Service – Memory Research

޹ó: Yole Developpement    Annunal Base Service   ް: 30,000[PDF]    :   

    
 
    

MEMORY IS NOW THE PRIMARY MARKET SEGMENT FOR SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTS

The hyper-growth of the memory market in 2017-2018 has positioned both DRAM and NAND memory as leading devices within the semiconductor market. With the memory markets significantly impacting the semiconductor industry in terms of profits, capex, and sales, Yole Développement is publishing two monitors covering the fast-moving DRAM and NAND markets. Beginning in 2018, Yole Développement began publishing world-class research, data, and insights covering the memory markets in quarterly installments that analyze the evolution of the DRAM and NAND markets in terms of revenue, shipments, capex, and near-term price evolution, as well as demand per market segment, DRAM and NAND technology evolution, and detailed profiles of main suppliers. Yole Développement will also provide DRAM and NAND monthly pricing monitors to track the price evolution of key components and packaged solutions. 

EVERY APPLICATION IS PUSHING NAND DEMAND TO NEW HEIGHTS

The long-term outlook for the NAND market is positive, despite the continued presence of seasonality and cyclicality. Imbalances in supply and demand can cause market volatility in the short term, but emerging megatrends and the ongoing replacement of hard-disk drives (HDDs) with NAND-based solid-state drives (SSDs) are expected to push NAND to new heights.

Capital expenditures for the industry are increasing, in order to support the NAND architecture shift from planar (2D) to 3D structures and ongoing layer count growth. There are several announced or anticipated cleanroom additions which are needed to offset wafer through put reductions as suppliers ramp-up their process-intensive 3D NAND. NANDs competitive landscape remains incredibly dynamic. Samsung is utilizing its massive new Pyeongtaek site and expanding its facilities in Xian, China; Toshiba Memory Corp. and its partner Western Digital continue to expand their footprint in Japan; Micron and SK Hynix remain competitive despite smaller manufacturing capacities; and Intel has emerged as a stand-alone supplier with capacity in China. Meanwhile, a new entrant looms on the horizon: Chinas Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), which threatens to disrupt the status-quo.

NAND demand remains robust, with strong growth for enterprise Solid-State Drives (SSDs) in data centers, increasing adoption of SSDs in laptop PCs, and continued content growth insmartphones and other mobile devices. These segments will continue driving the bulk of NAND bit consumption, though several emerging trends are poised to augment future growth, including AI and VR adoption, automotive, and IoT.

As the NAND market continues evolving, the industry faces many important questions, including:

  • When will the NAND market shift from oversupply to undersupply, and vice-versa? How will supplier profitability be impacted? How does the price-elasticity of demand factor into the outlook?
  • What are the limits of 3D NAND stacking? How will NAND suppliers continue to scale as 3D stackings limits approach?
  • To what extent will Quad-Level Cell (QLC)- based products reach the market, and from whom?
  • Will YMTCs emergence disrupt the current market conditions? • Will incumbent suppliers cede share to YMTC, or will a market-share battle erupt?
  • Is Intel working with YMTC to supply 3D NAND and/or provide technology? If so, what are both companies motivations?
  • Why are NAND capital expenditures continuing to rise? Will capital intensity climb too high and threaten supplier stability?
  • Will the NAND market eventually consolidate, similar to DRAM? How might this play out?
  • How do changes in price impact market demand? Which market segments are impacted first?
  • How do new megatrends like AI, machine learning, and virtual reality impact the NAND outlook? To what extent does NAND enable these?
  • How will SSD form-factors and interfaces evolve over time?
  • At what rate will SSDs replace HDDs in PCs?

Yole Développement answers these questions and provides opinions on a quarterly basis with its NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor.

NAND market dynamics per quarter_Q1 2019

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN THE UPCOMING QUARTERS?

After posting record revenue 2018, the NAND market is expected to decline in 2019 as the market attempts to overcome negative demand and pricing momentum from late 2018 and significant inventory builds. Revenue is expected to expand over time as cost reductions enable further penetration of NAND-based storage solutions into traditional HDD markets.

On the technology side, despite QLCs emergence, technology-driven bit growth will slow in the long-term as technology and manufacturing complexities continue rising.

Long-term ASP declines are expected to slightly outpace industry cost declines due to Chinas new entrant, YMTC, which could begin production as early as 2019. Profit margins are expected to shrink, but the industry will remain profitable.

The differences in planar vs. 3D NAND process flows will shift capex focus from lithography to deposition and etching: substantial fab retooling is required to convert existing planar fabs to 3D. With increasing processing time for 3D NAND, major investments are required in new capacity to maintain flat wafer output during transitions, benefiting equipment vendors.

NAND market forecast_Q1 2019

NAND QUARTERLY MARKET MONITOR AND MONTHLY PRICING MONITOR – CONTENT

The NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor provide all data related to NAND revenue per quarter, NAND shipments, pricing per NAND type, near and long-term revenue, market share per quarter, capex per company, and a market demand/supply forecast, along with a complete analysis and details on the demand side, with a deep dive into client and enterprise SSD, data centers, mobile, automotive, PC, and more.

For the top seven players (Samsung, Toshiba, Western Digital, Micron, SK Hynix, Intel, and YMTC), the NAND Quarterly Market Monitor offers a detailed analysis of capex, shipment, wafer production per technology (process mix) and per fab, as well as the expected impact of NAND technology changes.

The NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

  • Excel database with all historical and forecast data
  • PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/ analysis covering expected evolutions
  • Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, including opportunities for an on-demand Q&A as well as discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news.

WHAT ABOUT THE DRAM SERVICE – MEMORY RESEARCH?

A full package:
The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

  • Excel database with all historical and forecast data
  • PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolutions
  • Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, providing an opportunity for on-demand Q&A and discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news

Frequency:
Receive every quarter the updated Market Monitor documents and every month the updated Pricing Monitor documents

Options:

  • Pricing Monitors can be bought individually (NAND, DRAM or both)
  • Memory Research are available for DRAM, NAND and both

 



- Table of Contents -

NAND Quarterly Market Monitor (PPT file)

NAND market overview

  • Market dynamics
  • Revenue – Historical and forecast
  • Shipments
  • Blended pricing
  • Market shares – Revenue and bit shipments
  • Supplier ASPs
  • Sufficiency
  • Near-term shipment and pricing outlook
  • Capex
  • PCM forecast

NAND demand

  • Emerging demand drivers
  • Segment bit demand and share
  • Mobile
  • SSD – PC (client) and Datacenter (enterprise)
  • Automotive

NAND supply

  • Wafer production by supplier, process,and technology
  • Bit production by supplier, process,technology, and density
  • GB per wafer by supplier
  • SLC bit production and bit market share

NAND supplier profiles

  • New cleanroom updates
  • Samsung
  • Toshiba
  • Western Digital
  • Micron
  • SK Hynix
  • Intel
  • YMTC
  • Others

A complete Excel file with the analysis numerical data is included with the PPT presentation


NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor (Excel file)

Monthly price evolution from 2018 – 2020 for:

QLC NAND ($/unit)

  • 1Tb (128GB)

TLC NAND ($/unit)

  • 128Gb (16GB)
  • 256Gb (32GB)
  • 512Gb (64GB)

MLC NAND ($/unit)

  • 16Gb (2GB)
  • 32Gb (4GB)
  • 64Gb (8GB)
  • 128Gb (16GB)
  • 256Gb (32GB)

SLC NAND ($/unit)

  • 1Gb
  • 2Gb
  • 4Gb
  • 8Gb (1GB)

eMMC ($/unit)

  • 16GB TLC
  • 32GB TLC
  • 64GB TLC
  • 128GB TLC

UFS ($/unit)

  • 32GB TLC
  • 64GB TLC
  • 128GB TLC
  • 256GB TLC

eMCP ($/unit)

  • 16GB+8Gb LP3
  • 32GB+16Gb LP3
  • 64GB+24Gb LP3
  • 32GB+32Gb LP4
  • 64GB+32Gb LP4
  • 128GB+32Gb LP4
  • 128GB+48Gb LP4
  • 128GB+32Gb LP4
 
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