Forecast Reporting Schedule
The ESF has two key deliverables released on a periodic basis:

Quarterly Forecasts - 4 times per year (in February, May, August, November)
Monthly Updates - 8 times per year in the remaining months

Publishing Schedule                  
January monthly update                
1Q Quarterly Forecast                   
March monthly update                  
April monthly update                    
2Q Quarterly Forecast                  
June monthly update                   
July monthly update                    
3Q Quarterly Forecast                 
September monthly update           
October monthly update              
4Q Quarterly Forecast               
December monthly update          

Title: Econometric Semiconductor Forecast Service 2023

he Econometric Semiconductor Forecast (ESF) is the first semiconductor industry forecasting service to use rigorous state of the art global GDP macroeconomic models to provide quarterly forecasts with monthly updates, allowing forecast recipients to plan for short-term fluctuations in the volatile semiconductor industry. The ESF  uses a proven macroeconomic forecasting tool that incorporates measures of economic uncertainty, global economic shocks, and regional volatility to develop a Silicon area forecast for the global semiconductor industry.

The forecast provides subscribers with monthly updates of quarterly forecasts of total semiconductor production in Million Square Inches(MSI) of silicon processed.

The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast is based on an advanced econometric forecasting model developed by Duncan Meldrum, business economist and founder of Hilltop Economics, in conjunction with Linx Consulting.  The model is based on a demand-driven equation that captures >98% of the long run variation in semiconductors and includes:

• Global real GDP growth (from consensus forecasts)
• US consumer and business spending on technology goods
• Inventory-shipments ratio, computer & electronics
• Financial crisis shock indicator to capture panic behavior in latest cycle